US President Calls Economic Turmoil a 'Period of Transition' Amid Uncertainty Over Tariffs

United States President Donald Trump has declined to rule out the possibility of a US recession, citing that the economy is undergoing a "period of transition" due to his administration's trade and economic policies. His comments come as financial markets grapple with volatility sparked by tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as concerns over a potential economic slowdown.

Trump’s Perspective on the Economy

In an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked whether he believed the US economy was heading for a recession. The president avoided giving a direct response, instead stating:

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.”

Trump added that while these economic adjustments take time, he remains optimistic about the long-term benefits of his policies.

His remarks come against the backdrop of market instability fueled by his administration’s trade moves. Last week, the president imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%. However, within just 48 hours, Trump reversed course, postponing some of the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products until April 2.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policy has contributed to a significant market downturn. The S&P 500 dropped by more than 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since September 2024.

Recession Concerns Grow Amid Economic Indicators

The latest US economic data paints a mixed picture.

On Thursday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP tracker downgraded its estimate for Q1 2025, revising its outlook from a 2.3% expansion to a 2.4% contraction—raising fears that the economy could shrink.

On Friday, Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a US recession within the next 12 months, raising the probability from 15% to 20%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, offered a more positive sign, reporting the addition of 151,000 new jobs in January—a figure slightly below economists’ forecasts but still aligning with the 2024 employment trend.

Despite these indicators, Trump's administration remains defiant, dismissing fears of an economic downturn.

Commerce Secretary Denies Recession Risk

Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick rejected the idea that the US economy is on the brink of recession.

“Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be,” Lutnick stated.

He went further, saying:

“There’s going to be no recession in America.”

“I would never bet on recession. No chance.”

While the Trump administration maintains confidence in its economic policies, financial markets and economic analysts remain divided on whether the US can avoid a downturn.

What’s Next for the US Economy?

The coming months will be crucial in determining the true impact of Trump’s economic strategy. Key factors to watch include:

✔️ Inflation trends and consumer spending habits
✔️ Further policy changes regarding tariffs and trade relations
✔️ Stock market reactions and investor confidence
✔️ Employment growth and wage trends

With 2025 shaping up to be a volatile year, Trump’s economic policies could be a decisive factor in both financial markets and the upcoming presidential election.