Pakistan's Airstrikes in Afghanistan Prompt Taliban’s Warning of Retaliation

ISLAMABAD: Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated late Tuesday night as the Pakistani military conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, targeting alleged hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Security officials confirmed the strikes, which took place in the Barmal district near South Waziristan, following a surge in cross-border attacks claimed by the TTP.

This marked the first such cross-border strike since March, signaling Islamabad’s increasing frustration with what it perceives as Afghanistan’s failure to rein in TTP fighters operating from its territory. Reports suggest these air raids were triggered by last week’s TTP attack in South Waziristan that claimed the lives of 16 Pakistani soldiers, one of the deadliest assaults in recent months.

However, the interim Afghan government, led by the Taliban, condemned the airstrikes, alleging civilian casualties. According to the Taliban, at least 46 people, including women and children, were killed in the raids. Enayatullah Khowarazami, spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Defense Ministry, described the strikes as a “cowardly act” and warned that the Islamic Emirate would respond, labeling the defense of its territory an “inalienable right.”

The airstrikes came just hours after Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, held meetings in Kabul with interim Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. While Sadiq’s visit was reportedly aimed at addressing concerns over TTP activity, analysts suggest the airstrikes reflect Pakistan’s growing frustration over the lack of cooperation from Kabul in curbing cross-border attacks.

Rising Attacks and Strained Relations

Pakistan has consistently accused Afghanistan of harboring the TTP, claiming the group uses Afghan territory to launch attacks on Pakistani soil. According to Pakistani diplomats, the TTP has around 6,000 fighters operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. This year alone, Pakistan has recorded more than 850 violent incidents, surpassing the total for 2023, with significant casualties among both security personnel and civilians.

The interim Taliban government has denied harboring armed groups but remains under international scrutiny for failing to rein in militant factions. During a recent United Nations Security Council briefing, Pakistan highlighted the growing threat posed by the TTP and accused Afghanistan of inaction.

Security analysts point to Pakistan’s military operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability) as part of Islamabad’s broader strategy to counter TTP offensives. However, critics argue that such airstrikes, while retaliatory, may further strain already fragile relations with Afghanistan and risk inciting retaliation from both the Taliban and the TTP.

Risks of Escalation

The Taliban’s strong rhetoric following Tuesday’s strikes highlights the risk of retaliatory action, either directly from the Afghan government or indirectly through the TTP. Security expert Ihsanullah Tipu suggests that the Pakistani Taliban has already been discussing revenge attacks, alleging that women and children were killed in the air raids.

Amir Rana, director of the Islamabad-based think tank Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), warns that these strikes, though strategic, are reactive measures rather than part of a comprehensive policy. “Cross-border strikes need to be part of a larger diplomatic and security strategy, not merely retaliatory actions,” he emphasized.

Meanwhile, questions remain about whether Pakistan will face criticism from the international community for such airstrikes. Analysts like Rana believe global norms around cross-border operations are shifting, reducing the likelihood of international consequences for Pakistan’s actions. However, the long-term challenge lies in navigating a constructive dialogue with Afghanistan to prevent further deterioration in bilateral relations.